The 1st of July Andrés Manuel López Obrador won the presidential election in his third bid while a bunch of doubts and concerns build up on his future performance in office. A New York Times article by Azam Ahmed and Paulina Villegas (1) refers to four main questions.

López Obrador managed to hammered out a proactive campaign in which almost the totality of prospective secretaries of State were appointed during the race. For the case of the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público, or SHCP [the equivalent for the Treasury Department], this translated into an important message to the markets because Carlos Urzúa, although not a member of the establishment, is a rather experienced and orthodox economist who is commited to preserve the macro-balances of mexican economy and to maintain the upper bound on the Budget. In a talk with Leo Zuckermann, Gerardo Esquivel, appointed as vice secretary of SHCP under Urzúa direction, refered to the half thrillion pesos [500 mil millones de pesos] set up as the goal so the social programs of the upcoming government be fulfilled (2). He argued that 75% of this sum can be tackled down by resetting and reorganizing the budged. On this point, Mario Di Costanzo, now president of the National Comission for the Protection and Defence of the Users of Financial Services, pointed it out in 2012 that about 80 percent out of the total federal Budget refers to current spending (cellulars, cars, private health services, etc.) while only the remaining 20 percent goes to public investment (3); and that’s what is to be changed in the upcoming administration.

Besides, Esquivel showed up evidence of a giant discretionary spending under the Ramo 23 of federal budget. The Ramo 23’s approved spending for the 2017 exercise was 100 billion pesos while drew up to 300 billion pesos at the end of the year. The explanation for this is the very composition of Ramo 23, secret lines of spending and programs not oversaw by Congress.

The remaining 25% of the half trillion pesos is set to be drawn from the consolidation of the federal purchases. The two main sources of drop down in spending are the economies of scale created and the elimination of sur-prices due to corruption. The economic team to be in office, they find themselves ready to face and tackle down the political effects of the changes to be set and consider the balancing between a budget under control and a the objectives in social policy is fairly possible.

The election results show also that López Obrador waits for an absolute majority in both upper and lower chambers (senators and representatives). This gives him power to enact almost any of his proposed policies, including to cut down to half the salary of all members in Congress, as Horacio Duarte, current delegate of MORENA – López Obrador’s party- before INE, and future representative in the forthcoming legislation, declared (4). Diego Valadés – jurist, constitutionalist and researcher – declared to Proceso (5) that anger is not the unique explanation for such a great message of change like mexican society has drawn up. He argues that people have important aspirations of social change and that López Obrador achieved to personified them. “With such a great power there exists a risk of a restoration of the presidential hegemony” Valadés said. To prevent this AMLO needs to create the conditions for democratic State with political controls and not just punishing policies to overcome corruption. Valadés identifies the local congresses as a key aspect at stake to create a vigilant relation between the states’ governments and the federal Congress and refers to the re-election of Majors and representatives as a danger at sight in an environment of disfunctional institutions and absence of the political controls just mentioned. That is one of the critical challenges for AMLO, to promote the creation of solid and functional institutions to prevent the local governments remained in chaos while the federal administration leads its own way, in which case all the effort for a change would tear down to desilution and frustration.

On Wednesday 11th of July, AMLO has put under consideration of the just elected senators and representatives of MORENA twelve prospective constitutional reforms (6). One of them aims the creation of the new Public Security Department, which bricks down the idea that the outgoing government has failed in setting down the bloodshed and violence all along the nation because of a mistaken strategy of armed contention driven by the mexican army and marine. Alfonso Durazo, especialist of security in the upcoming government has set along the necessity of critical corrections on the administrative management of security alongside the social aspect of the issue.

There is evidence that a renewing bilateral relation between Mexico and The United States of America is to come with the upcoming administration. By Friday 11th a top-level delegation of members of the American government – Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of Treasury, and Jared Kushner – will meet with López Obrador in his office. Trump administration is aware of the social support that president-elect AMLO and his team have – more than 30 million of votes in the last election-, and they know that the new mexican government will seek a less conciliatory relation with Washington. Some versions have leacked out on the pressure of Trump administration onto the outgoing mexican government. Especialists say that American government seeks an agremment to convert Mexico as a restraining territory for the South American migration to the United States. This and other critical topics in the relation put aside any chance to tie a good forecast up in the short term. However the results out of Friday’s meeting may shed some light about what we can expect in the future.